When it is better to buy an apartment

Real estate market experts told when it is better to buy an apartment

The housing market has become less dependent on seasonality and more dependent on decisions made by the state, including on loan rates and mortgage programs. Industry experts advise to be more determined because the analysis shows that those who bought a house in 2022 spent less than the buyers of 2023 and they, in turn, are already "winning" compared to the buyers of 2024.

Commercial Director of the holding Company «RSTI» Ekaterina Nemchenko says that the question when is it better to buy an apartment is common, the topic has always been discussed.

“Firstly, it is obvious that the price is lower at the start of construction, and during the construction process it increases along with the readiness of the property. Secondly, the largest selection of apartments is also at the start, although developers manage the reserve and can put volumes on sale in parts, but at different prices. It turns out that it is best to buy at the start of sales. There is a certain benefit, but many prefer to observe how the construction will go, thus minimizing the risk of long-term construction and not paying mortgage payments during construction”, – the expert comment.

Nemchenko explains that if the market is stable, it is easier to identify patterns, build hypotheses, talk about the seasonality of demand, stimulating promotions and the like, but the last two years have turned all ideas about seasonality, about waiting tactics and accumulation strategies. The market was dependent on mortgage programs and conditions that developers could offer together with banks. As the conditions of the programs change, it becomes obvious that those who did not postpone the purchase for later, but acted more boldly, making a decision during the most profitable offers, will benefit.

“As the conditions of the programs change, it becomes obvious that those who did not postpone the purchase for later, but acted more boldly, making a decision during the most profitable offers, will benefit”, - the expert comment.

Nemchenko's conclusion is unambiguous: If everything is suitable for the potential buyer - there is a need for a new apartment, there is a property in mind that fits the request, it is being built by a reliable developer and financial instrument that allows you to buy a house is arranged - it is not worth dragging and waiting for summer discounts or more profitable mortgage programs. There will definitely be such an increase in prices that no discount will compensate, either they will sort out the layout they like or the bank will change the programs, or other changes in the situation will occur that will make you regret that you did not conclude the contract earlier.

“A reader with a critical mindset will say: “We know you, you say that on purpose so that you go to buy now,” but look at the price dynamics in a separate object or in the market as a whole, analyze the various ways of buying a mortgage or in installments, compare the conditions for mortgage programs over the past couple of years, and everything will fall into place their places. Will low mortgage rates return? Anything is possible, but no one will say when it may happen, but prices for  new development swill not reduce. The reason for this is the regular increase in cost. So it turns out that the current conditions are the best. The next innovations, which relate to preferential mortgage lending programs, will also lead to an increase in the cost of apartments in houses under construction," - summed up Nemchenko.

The director of the St. Petersburg Real Estate consulting center (Setl Group) Olga Trosheva also speaks about the dependence of the cost on the stage of readiness of the object: The lowest prices are traditionally at the start, and the closer to completion of construction, the higher the price becomes. In the most attractive locations (developed infrastructure, metro stations, recreation areas, etc.), prices, of course, grow faster.

Trosheva explains that developers bring residential complexes to the market throughout the year, so we can not talk about the seasons of low and high prices. It is worth remembering that apartments with a suitable price can be found at any time of the year: the start of sales, but not only — periodically developers have promotional offers for certain types of apartments, or for parking lots, or for furniture. “In other words, when choosing an apartment, you should rely not on the season, but on other factors. First, decide on the budget, the class of the residential complex, and the location. Find out which of the reliable developers is building in this neighborhood. Subscribe to the developers' pages on social networks — this way you will not miss information about the upcoming sales launches of new residential complexes,” - the expert advises.

The question of benefit is a relative concept, it is influenced by many variables, and the absolute price of the offer is only one of them, says marketing analyst at the Association of Builders of St. Petersburg Evgeny Ortin. “It seems that the summer vacation season promises some preferences when buying a home. in a number of situations, this is indeed the case. During this period, to stimulate demand, developers activate various kinds of marketing programs, including various kinds of discounts, installments, "square meters for free" and so on. However, do not forget that all these events, as a rule, are already included in the sales plans,” – reminds Evgeny.

Ortin advises paying close attention to factors such as the size of the loan rate, the appearance of new facilities in the same location, or on the contrary, "hot offers" that still appear on the market from time to time.

“It is worth remembering that housing in St. Petersburg has an irreversible property to become more expensive — and it is good in case at the rate of inflation. Last year's 50 percent surge in demand occurred in the last month of summer. Therefore, if there is such an opportunity, it still makes no sense to delay the process of improving housing conditions,” - Ortin adds.

“If you buy a house for yourself, for life, for your family, then there are no better times. We never advise you to wait, because life goes on — you don't need to cancel it”, - said Yuri Zagorovsky, Vice President of the Association of Realtors of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region – “Only if something extraordinary is expected, you can slow down. And all other things being equal, if you are solving your housing issue, you do not need to postpone it, you need to solve it as it is."

The expert clarified that it is possible to adjust the deadlines, for example, for several months, if there is no urgency to resolve the housing issue. “If you intend to take out a loan, then wait for the interest rate reduction. Because the credit conditions are very unprofitable now — from 15%” – he added. According to the forecasts of the interlocutor, in 2024 the interest rate reduction should begin in Russia.

As a rule, the peak of sales is in spring. Summer is always a dead season, and usually autumn is a situation when market players record the results of the year, said Elena Bodrova, executive director of the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers. “The state has forcibly reduced the number of possible buyers and their financial stability, and developers are forced to focus on them. I think that this balance will allow the market to hold and prevent any significant jumps”. – she added

The press service of the LSR Group believes that today it is difficult to say in which period of the year it is most profitable to purchase real estate, since the influence of the seasonal factor on the real estate market has been offset by other, more significant ones (changes in lending programs, foreign policy events). For example, last year, the price increase began in May, usually this month, on the contrary, it decreases. Now the market lives in the paradigm of subsidized mortgage programs until July 2024.

“Saving tactics are quite risky today for several reasons. Firstly, the ruble is getting cheaper. Secondly, the conditions for buying real estate are changing, and the probability of their tightening is very high. Therefore, if you are faced with the task of improving housing conditions, you should not postpone the purchase,” - says the developer.

Natalia Kukushkina, head of the marketing group at CDS, also noted that the dependence of the market on seasonality has become less in the last few years, and more on decisions made by the state, on the contrary. “We can draw an analogy with a monopolist marketer who dictates the terms of the entire market. First of all, it matters when a government program begins or ends. The Central Bank's key rate also has an impact, dictating the value of money in the market. The contribution of seasonality becomes quite conditional. Although, of course, a few days before the New Year, the "Let's go after the holidays" period begins, which lasts until mid—January,” - the expert says.

Kukushkina recalls that at the same time, the summer pause in 2023 was no longer such a traditionally calm period. Last August, demand soared after news of an increase in the down payment on a preferential mortgage from 15% to 20%. Now, by the way, it is already 30%.

For those buyers who were ready to buy a home and faced unforeseen circumstances for the market, the expert advises not to take a wait-and-see position.

“The experience of 2023 has shown that if you are at the decision-making stage, then you need to do it quickly. If your task is related to investing funds, then it may make sense to monitor market conditions. If your task is to purchase an apartment in order to improve your living conditions, then you should not postpone life for later in the current situation. As practice shows, those who bought an apartment last year have already benefited compared to those who did it this year. In 2022, it was possible to buy an apartment at a lower cost and on more favorable mortgage terms. Next year, everything suggests that conditions will be even more difficult,” - summed up  Kukushkina.

Author: Irina Korbat

Source: Fontanka.ru